Hainan Trade Deep Dive, January 2026

Full-year trade tables released as “customs closure” enters first full month

Trade Highlights

Full-year 2025 trade statistics released (official tables)

Haikou Customs released the official 2025 (January–December) Hainan foreign trade statistical tables. These tables provide the full annual import and export totals, along with detailed breakdowns, and represent the final official data set for the year. The materials were published through the Haikou Customs statistics portal.

📎 Source: Haikou Customs (via Guangzhou Customs portal) (2026-01-19)
http://guangzhou.customs.gov.cn/haikou_customs/605737/fdzdgknr82/605745/6952209/index.html

December 2025 duty-free tables released (official tables)

Haikou Customs also published the December 2025 offshore duty-free sales tables. These provide month-end figures as well as cumulative totals for the year, released in spreadsheet format.

📎 Source: Haikou Customs (via Guangzhou Customs portal) (2026-01-19)
http://guangzhou.customs.gov.cn/haikou_customs/605737/fdzdgknr82/605745/6952249/index.html

First-month duty-free activity under customs closure: ¥4.86 billion, 745,000 shopper visits

For the first month following the start of island-wide special customs operations (December 18, 2025 to January 17, 2026), official data reported the following results:

• ¥4.86 billion in duty-free sales

• 74.5万人次 = 745,000 shopper visits

• 349.4万件 = 3.494 million items sold

📎 Source: General Administration of Customs / customs.gov.cn (2026-01-18)
http://www.customs.gov.cn/customs/2026-01/18/article_2026011822473135590.html
(Parallel Xinhua release: http://www.news.cn/fortune/20260118/71194695e5454fbd9ebb4bd7dbd56ec4/c.html )

New Year holiday (Jan 1–3) duty-free: ¥712 million, 83,500 shopper visits

During the January 1–3 New Year holiday period, customs authorities reported:

• 7.12亿元 = ¥712 million in sales

• 8.35万人次 = 83,500 shopper visits

• 44.2万件 = 442,000 items sold

📎 Source: General Administration of Customs / customs.gov.cn (2026-01-06)
http://www.customs.gov.cn/customs/2026-01/06/article_2026010609175928782.html

Zero-tariff activity during the first month: 53 transactions, ¥753 million cargo value, ¥109 million tax reductions

At an official provincial briefing on the progress of customs closure, published reporting citing customs data stated that during the first month:

• “零关税” transactions: 53

• Cargo value: 7.53亿元 = ¥753 million

• Tax reductions: 1.09亿元 = ¥109 million

📎 Source: Hainan Provincial Government portal (press briefing page) (2026-01-19)
http://www.hainan.gov.cn/hainan/szfxwfbh/202601/c48c098faef3458692c6c9a57b055dd3.shtml

Private enterprise trade performance highlighted: ¥197.54 billion total trade in 2025

Haikou Customs reported that in 2025, private enterprises in Hainan recorded:

• 1975.4亿元 = ¥197.54 billion in total trade

• Exports: 660.1亿元 = ¥66.01 billion

• Imports: 1315.3亿元 = ¥131.53 billion

The release also reported year-on-year growth rates for private enterprise trade.

📎 Source: Haikou Customs (January 2026, Haikou Customs website)
http://haikou.customs.gov.cn/haikou_customs/605732/605733/6997244/index.html

What It Means

What the January Data Shows

The January releases from Haikou Customs and related authorities provide the first operational data following the launch of island-wide customs operations on December 18, 2025.

The data released during the month covers three main areas:

• Duty-free retail activity

• Early zero-tariff transaction data

• Full-year 2025 trade statistics for Hainan

Together, these datasets serve as an initial reference point for how the new customs framework is functioning in practice.

Duty-Free Activity

According to official customs data:

• Offshore duty-free sales totaled ¥4.86 billion between December 18, 2025 and January 17, 2026

• Sales during the January 1–3 holiday period alone reached ¥712 million

• Total shopper visits during the period reached 745,000, with 3.49 million items sold

What the Data Indicates

From an analytical perspective, the January figures suggest stability rather than disruption.

Specifically:

Systems are operating at scale
The volume of transactions, including ¥4.86 billion in duty-free sales and hundreds of thousands of shoppers, indicates that customs, payment, clearance, and retail systems continued to function normally after the transition to island-wide customs supervision.
If significant bottlenecks or system failures had occurred, they would likely have appeared as sharp declines in activity or gaps in reporting. This did not happen.

Policy implementation did not reduce demand
Duty-free consumption during the post-launch period broadly matches recent historical patterns. This suggests that the shift to the new customs regime did not introduce meaningful friction for consumers or operators.

Zero-tariff mechanisms are active, but used selectively
The number and value of zero-tariff transactions show that the mechanism is being used in practice. However, usage remains limited relative to total trade volume. This pattern is typical during early implementation phases.

The data reflects continuity, not acceleration
There is no statistical evidence yet of a surge in activity or a structural shift. What the data shows is continuity: trade, retail activity, and customs processing continued without disruption during the transition period.

Zero-Tariff and Processing Trade Activity

Provincial and customs releases report that:

• 53 zero-tariff transactions were recorded after customs operations began

• The total value of goods involved reached ¥753 million

• Reported tax reductions totaled ¥109 million

These figures confirm that the zero-tariff mechanism is being used. However, the data does not specify how many enterprises are participating or how current usage compares with longer-term expectations. No official assessment has yet been published on scale, speed of uptake, or sector coverage.

Enterprise and Trade Structure Data

Full-year 2025 statistics released by Haikou Customs show that:

• Private enterprises recorded ¥197.54 billion in total trade

• Imports reached ¥131.53 billion, while exports totaled ¥66.01 billion

• Year-on-year growth was reported for private-sector trade

These figures reflect historical performance for 2025. They do not measure post-closure outcomes and are not directly attributed to specific policy changes.

Overall, the January releases provide operational data rather than formal policy evaluation.

Bite Size Take Away

January’s data shows that Hainan’s customs system is operational and generating measurable activity. However, it is still too early to draw conclusions about longer-term impact or structural change.

Duty-free sales remain strong, zero-tariff transactions are taking place, and official reporting is now regular and transparent. At the same time, overall usage remains limited in scale, and no official evaluation of effectiveness has been released.

For businesses, the key takeaway is that the system is active, visible, and functioning, but still in the early stage of real-world operation.