Hainan’s new tourism plan is not only about attracting more visitors. It shows where the province intends to concentrate infrastructure, policy support and investment through 2030.

The targets include more than 120 inbound passenger routes, 3.5 million recorded inbound visitor trips, offshore duty-free sales above RMB 50 billion and two million medical-tourism visits. All 16 indicators are classified as 预期性, meaning indicative rather than binding. They show provincial direction, not guaranteed commercial outcomes.

For investors, the more important question is not whether the targets will be reached exactly. It is which sectors already have functioning market-access rules, and which still depend on further approvals from provincial or central authorities.

Hainan wants a larger international market

The province is targeting an increase in total visitor trips from 106.07 million in 2025 to 154 million in 2030. Tourist spending is targeted to rise from RMB 225.4 billion to RMB 363 billion.

Inbound visitor trips are targeted to increase from 1.5 million to 3.5 million, while inbound spending is targeted to rise from US$1.01 billion to US$2.485 billion.

The 1.5 million baseline does not mean Hainan received 1.5 million foreign holidaymakers. The official 入境游客人次, or inbound visitor person-trips, category includes foreign nationals and visitors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. It counts trips rather than unique travellers, so repeat visitors can be counted more than once.

The plan separately records 608,000 visa-free foreign-national entries in 2025 and targets more than one million by 2030. It also aims to increase inbound overnight visitor-days from 5.94 million to 17.5 million.

Aviation is central to the strategy. Hainan wants inbound passenger routes to increase from 92 to more than 120, with the number of connected overseas cities rising from 43 to more than 60. For airlines, hotels, destination-management companies and visitor-service providers, these targets describe the market the province wants to build. They do not guarantee that the routes or passenger volumes will materialise.

Different parts of Hainan are being assigned different roles

Haikou and Sanya remain the two core international tourism consumption centres. The plan assigns more specialised functions to six other areas.

Danzhou is positioned around culture and entertainment, Boao Lecheng around medical tourism, Lingshui Li’an around international education, Wanning around sports, Wenchang around aerospace tourism and the tropical rainforest areas around ecological and ethnic-cultural tourism.

The accompanying project schedule includes cruise facilities in Haikou, Sanya and Danzhou, the third phase of Sanya International Duty Free City, aerospace tourism infrastructure in Wenchang, education expansion at Lingshui Li’an and international medical institutions under preparation.

This creates a clearer location strategy for investors. International aviation and large events remain concentrated around Haikou and Sanya. Medical services are tied mainly to Lecheng. International education is centred on Li’an, while aerospace tourism is linked to Wenchang.

The project list is not a completion schedule. It shows where Hainan intends to direct infrastructure development, investment promotion and policy attention.

Duty-free growth depends partly on further policy decisions

Hainan is targeting offshore duty-free sales above RMB 50 billion by 2030, compared with a planning baseline of RMB 30.38 billion in 2025.

The current national policy is already operational. Revised rules took effect on November 1, 2025, expanding the product list from 45 to 47 categories, retaining the RMB 100,000 annual allowance and extending eligibility to travellers leaving Hainan directly for destinations outside mainland China.

The plan also seeks additional product categories, more high-end and limited-release goods, further operating locations and a broader duty-free consumer-goods system for island residents.

The word used is 争取, meaning to seek or strive for. These measures still require separate policy decisions and should not be treated as existing market access.

Healthcare combines an existing opening with further ambition

Medical-tourism visits are targeted to rise from 865,300 in 2025 to two million in 2030, with the Boao Lecheng International Medical Tourism Pilot Zone remaining the main platform for that growth.

Foreign investors already have a route to establish wholly foreign-owned hospitals in Hainan under a national pilot introduced in 2024. Eligible institutions include general, specialist and rehabilitation hospitals, but they must meet tertiary, or Level III, standards and obtain individual approval.

Traditional Chinese medicine hospitals, public-hospital acquisitions and several higher-risk clinical activities are excluded. Mainland-Chinese personnel must make up at least half of both hospital management and health-professional staff.

The tourism plan says Hainan will seek a further expansion of this pilot. It also identifies three contracted international hospitals under preparation and proposes wider use of international commercial insurance. The plan does not specify what additional expansion the province wants approved.

For hospital groups, the current entry route is the existing national pilot. For insurers, medical concierge businesses, translation providers, accommodation operators and patient-support companies, the opportunity depends more directly on whether Lecheng delivers the patient growth in the plan.

International education remains approval-led

Hainan wants the number of independent universities and Sino-foreign cooperative institutions or programmes to rise from 34 in 2025 to 55 by 2030. It also targets a total scale of 50,000 students, staff and training participants at Lingshui Li’an.

Rules issued in 2023 already allow qualifying overseas universities and vocational institutions to establish science, engineering, agriculture and medical schools or campuses in the Hainan Free Trade Port. Each institution still requires approval, and the framework does not provide unrestricted access across all academic disciplines.

The commercial opportunity extends beyond universities. International student services, accommodation, training, research exchanges, education technology and professional services could all benefit if the planned institutions and enrolment targets materialise.

The key distinction for investors

The opportunities in the plan fall broadly into two groups.

Demand-led businesses need Hainan to deliver more passengers, longer stays and higher spending. These include hotels, tourism services, events, medical concierge companies, payment providers, translation services and travel-technology businesses.

Approval-led businesses need a licence, policy change or institutional decision before they can enter or expand. These include duty-free operators, foreign hospital groups and overseas universities.

The two categories overlap, but the practical question is which constraint comes first. A hotel needs customers. A hospital needs approval. A university needs both approval and students.

Hainan’s plan does not prove that the 2030 market will arrive. It shows where the province intends to build it, and which sectors investors should watch for operating data, project delivery and new implementation measures.

Read the full analysis here: Hainan’s 2030 Tourism Plan Maps Growth in Aviation, Duty-Free, Healthcare and Education