A tropical depression over the South China Sea is expected to strengthen before making landfall on Hainan’s eastern coast on 3 July, bringing heavy rain, strong coastal winds and a significant risk of disruption to cross-strait ferry services.
As of the latest verified bulletin from the Central Meteorological Observatory, the system had not yet been officially named or numbered.
Current Position and Strength
At 06:00 on 2 July, the Central Meteorological Observatory said the tropical depression was centred at 17.1 degrees north and 114.5 degrees east, about 475 km east-southeast of Wanning.
Maximum winds near the centre were Force 7, or 15 metres per second, with a central pressure of 1000 hPa. The system was forecast to move west-northwest at 15 to 20 km/h and strengthen within 12 hours.
Expected Track and Landfall
The current forecast places landfall on Hainan’s eastern coast during the afternoon to evening of 3 July. By then, the system is expected to reach severe tropical storm strength, with winds of 25 to 30 metres per second, or Force 10 to 11.
It is then forecast to cross Hainan, move into the Beibu Gulf, and make a second landfall along the Guangxi coast to the coast of northern Vietnam during the afternoon to evening of 4 July.
Warnings and Emergency Response
Hainan has already issued a Typhoon Level IV warning, while the Hainan Provincial Disaster Reduction Committee has activated a Level IV flood and wind emergency response.
The response was launched at 10:00 on 1 July after the tropical disturbance developed into a tropical depression.
Heavy Rain Risk
Rain is expected to be the main hazard for residents and travellers. Hainan meteorological authorities forecast heavy rain across much of the island from 3 to 4 July, with localised extremely heavy rain possible.
From 08:00 on 3 July to 08:00 on 6 July, cumulative rainfall is forecast to reach 200 to 300 mm, and locally more than 400 mm, in Qiongzhong, Qionghai, Wanning, Baisha, Changjiang, Dongfang, Ledong, Wuzhishan, Baoting, Lingshui and Sanya.
Haikou, Lingao, Chengmai, Ding’an, Wenchang, Tunchang and Danzhou are forecast to receive 100 to 200 mm.
Wind Conditions
Winds around Hainan are expected to strengthen from the night of 2 July.
Hainan meteorological authorities forecast winds around Hainan Island and the Beibu Gulf to increase from east to west to Force 9 to 11, with gusts of Force 12 to 13, from the night of 2 July to 4 July.
The Central Meteorological Observatory has also warned of Force 6 to 8 winds, with gusts of Force 9 to 10, across much of the South China Sea, the Beibu Gulf, and waters near the Zhongsha and Xisha island groups from 08:00 on 2 July to 08:00 on 3 July.
Ferry and Port Disruption Risk
The Haikou Municipal Transport Bureau issued a suspension pre-warning at 20:30 on 1 July, saying Xinhai Port, Xiuying Port and Railway Nangang Port may suspend operations on the afternoon of 2 July. The specific timing will depend on weather conditions.
Travellers planning to cross the Qiongzhou Strait should check ferry status before leaving for the port, book in advance where possible, and avoid driving to the port after any formal suspension notice is issued.
The transport bureau said capacity was still sufficient at the time of its warning and advised drivers and passengers with crossing needs to arrange their trips early.
Safety Advice for Residents and Travellers
Residents in coastal, low-lying and mountainous areas should complete preparations before conditions deteriorate. Balcony items should be secured, phones and power banks charged, and vehicles moved away from flood-prone areas.
During the strongest period of rain and wind, residents and visitors should avoid mountain roads, river crossings, seafronts and reservoirs.
The Central Meteorological Observatory’s typhoon guidance says vessels in affected waters should return to port, outdoor mass gatherings and dangerous high-altitude outdoor work should stop, and affected areas should guard against mountain torrents and geological hazards caused by heavy rain.
Naming and Official Classification
Some online posts may refer to the system as Typhoon Bavi, but the latest verified NMC typhoon quick bulletin still classified it as a tropical depression at 05:14 on 2 July.
TropicalHainan.com will update the advisory once the system is officially upgraded, named or numbered by the relevant meteorological authorities.
What to Check Next
The key updates to watch next are the Central Meteorological Observatory typhoon bulletin, Hainan meteorological updates, Haikou port and ferry notices, airline and airport messages, and any city-level announcements on school, business, transport or scenic-area closures.
Forecasts may change quickly as the system approaches land, and local measures may be issued with little notice.
Related article: Hainan Enters Hottest Month: Peak Heat, Widening Drought and Stronger Typhoon Risk
