Temperatures have exceeded 42°C and drought now covers eight Hainan counties. The heat is severe but not unprecedented. The bigger concern is what may come next: a hotter-than-normal season in which continuing dry periods may be interrupted by intense rainfall and stronger tropical cyclones.
Hainan entered June, generally its hottest month, with temperatures above 40°C recorded in 21 townships across ten cities and counties. Hanlin Township in Ding’an recorded the period’s highest temperature at 42.2°C.
By 4 June, Ding’an had reached exceptionally severe meteorological drought, the highest classification. Tunchang and Dongfang were experiencing severe drought, while Chengmai, Baisha, Qiongzhong, Wenchang and Sanya had reached moderate drought. Conditions had deteriorated in seven of those counties within one week.
At the same time, Hainan is entering its main flood and typhoon season. Provincial forecasters expect a near-normal number of tropical cyclones in 2026, but warn that the systems affecting or making landfall on the island may be stronger than usual.
Hainan could experience continuing heat and water stress, followed by short periods of torrential rain, flooding and storm disruption. By the end of the season, the total rainfall may look close to normal while concealing months of highly uneven weather.
The 2026 season at a glance
- 42.2°C: highest township temperature recorded between 29 May and 4 June.
- Eight counties: experiencing moderate drought or worse as of 4 June.
- Seven to nine: tropical cyclones expected to enter Hainan Province’s area of influence.
- One to two: systems expected to make landfall on Hainan Island.
- Above normal: expected temperatures, high-temperature days and average tropical cyclone intensity.
The heat is severe, but the drought is the stronger warning
The 42.2°C reading is striking, but it does not make 2026 Hainan’s hottest year or even its most extreme recent heat season. Provincial meteorological officials said the island’s average number of high-temperature days in May was close to normal and lower than in May 2020, 2021 and 2023.
From the start of 2026 to 7 May, Hainan’s average temperature was 23.4°C, or 0.9°C above normal. Average rainfall reached 151.2 millimetres, 29.8% below the historical average for the same period. With the exception of Haikou, Wuzhishan and Ledong, every city and county recorded below-normal rainfall.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to become more widespread from 9 to 12 June, with most daytime temperatures falling to 31°C to 34°C. Meteorological authorities nevertheless expected drought conditions to continue.
Provincial meteorological authorities have advised scientific reservoir management and controlled irrigation, while warning farmers to manage rice harvesting, lychee orchards and rubber tapping around changing rainfall conditions. Parts of northern and central Hainan also faced an elevated forest-fire risk during the early-June heat.
The main risk is not that Hainan will remain continuously dry until November. It is that the rain needed to relieve the drought may arrive in the wrong places, at the wrong time and sometimes with damaging intensity.
A near-normal cyclone count can still produce a dangerous season
Hainan’s official forecast expects seven to nine systems to enter the province’s area of influence during the flood season, close to the historical average of 7.8.
Of those systems, four or five are expected to affect Hainan Island, slightly below the historical average of 5.3. One or two may make landfall on the island, close to the long-term average of 1.6.
A tropical cyclone can enter Hainan’s wider forecast area without crossing the island. It can disrupt ferries, flights, fishing, coastal tourism and offshore operations without making direct landfall.
The issue lies in intensity rather than frequency. Provincial forecasters expect the average strength of tropical cyclones affecting and making landfall on Hainan to be above normal. They have also warned that an individual strong typhoon could seriously affect the island.
The Hainan Climate Centre expects tropical cyclones, heavy rain, flooding, heat and drought to make the overall 2026 flood season worse than the long-term norm. Its assessment places the season broadly alongside 2025, but below the exceptional severity of 2024.
Super Typhoon Yagi remains the recent benchmark. The storm made landfall in Wenchang in September 2024 and became the strongest autumn typhoon to land in China since meteorological records began. Across Hainan, Guangdong, Guangxi and Yunnan, Yagi caused four deaths, damaged or destroyed around 189,000 homes and produced direct economic losses of CNY 72.03 billion.
Nothing in the current forecast says that Hainan is likely to experience another Yagi in 2026. It does say that a season with ordinary-looking cyclone numbers can still contain one storm capable of causing disproportionate damage.
Rainfall carries the same problem. Hainan’s flood-season rainfall is forecast at between 900 and 1,700 millimetres across different parts of the province, broadly close to normal. But the number of heavy-rain days may be slightly above normal, and the overall flood risk is expected to be somewhat worse.
Several weeks of rainfall deficit followed by a few days of torrential rain may produce an ordinary-looking final total while still causing agricultural losses, urban waterlogging, flash floods and transport disruption.
What El Niño could mean for the rest of the season
The Pacific had not officially entered El Niño conditions by mid-May. NOAA still classified conditions as ENSO-neutral, but estimated an 82% probability that El Niño would emerge between May and July and a 96% probability that it would continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter.
El Niño changes the distribution of warm ocean water and atmospheric activity across the Pacific. In the western North Pacific, tropical cyclones often form farther east during El Niño conditions. This gives some storms longer tracks over warm water and more time to intensify.
Their tracks also tend to lie farther north and east, towards eastern China, Korea and Japan, rather than concentrating on southern China, the Philippines and Vietnam.
For Hainan, that pattern may reduce the relative probability of some direct approaches through the South China Sea. It does not remove the risk. Storm tracks depend on the atmospheric conditions surrounding each system, and Hainan’s official forecast still allows for four or five affecting cyclones and one or two direct landfalls.
During the strong 2015 El Niño, Hainan experienced severe drought that year, while the wider western North Pacific produced 13 super typhoons, the highest annual number since comprehensive records began in 1961. Storm formation shifted farther east, allowing many systems to remain over the ocean for longer and intensify.
Prediction, June to early July:
Further hot periods and continuing drought are likely, interrupted by local showers and thunderstorms. Rain may bring temporary relief without fully correcting the accumulated water deficit, particularly if the heaviest showers repeatedly miss the worst-affected areas.
July to September:
This is likely to be the most volatile part of the season, with alternating heat, dry intervals, concentrated rainfall and increasing tropical cyclone activity. Even systems that remain offshore could disrupt ferries, flights, coastal tourism and marine operations.
October and November:
If El Niño becomes established, a greater share of western Pacific storms may form farther east and curve northward. Hainan’s relative direct-landfall risk may decline, but late-season South China Sea storms will remain possible. The provincial forecast allows for the final cyclone affecting Hainan Province to occur as late as early December.
Residents, visitors and outdoor operators should prepare for the fact that water conservation may remain necessary during dry periods, while drainage, storm protection and transport contingency plans will become important when heavy rain or tropical cyclones approach.
Related article: Typhoon Season 2026, What Hainan Residents Can Expect in the Coming Months
