Hainan should expect a warmer-than-normal winter that may not stay warm all season, followed by a drier spring. That is the outlook the Hainan Provincial Climate Centre published on 5 November. It comes as an El Niño that China’s National Climate Center ranks as the strongest on record nears its peak.
El Niño is an unusual warming of the sea surface in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It usually recurs every two to seven years and can upset weather patterns around the world. Events are graded by strength as weak, moderate, strong or super.
The event under way is in the top grade. Gao Rong, deputy director of China’s National Climate Center, told a China Meteorological Administration press conference on 3 November that it formed in September 2026. By October, he said, it had become the strongest El Niño since monitoring records began.
It also grew unusually fast. It reached super strength in five months; the three earlier super El Niños, in 1982–83, 1997–98 and 2015–16, took eight to 15 months. It is the 23rd El Niño since 1950 according to Zhao Junhu, the National Climate Center’s chief forecaster who gave the figures in an online briefing on 3 November.
El Niño’s effects on weather lag behind the ocean warming, the Hainan centre says. The atmosphere takes time to respond, so the effects are generally more pronounced in the year after an event forms.
A warm winter with a cold middle
The centre expects average temperatures across Hainan to run above normal from winter 2026–27 into spring 2027. But it warns that winter may swing sharply. It may be markedly warm at first, colder in the middle, then warm up quickly towards the end.
A warm average does not rule out cold snaps. Zhao said it is a mistake to assume a warm winter is certain, because the forecast describes a seasonal average. He pointed to very strong cold waves in January 1998 and January 2016, both in winters of earlier super El Niños.
Rain is forecast to be slightly above normal in winter and slightly below normal in spring. The centre says the central, western and southern parts of Hainan Island may then face spells of meteorological drought: dry periods caused by a shortage of rain.
What this means for you
Keep warm clothes to hand for a possible colder spell in mid-winter. The centre advises residents to follow forecasts, add or remove layers as the weather changes and guard against colds and other respiratory illnesses.
Growers face two risks. Cold, overcast and wet spells, which Chinese forecasters call 低温阴雨, could harm open-field winter vegetables and early-season rice that has been sown early. The centre expects the overall impact of these spells in winter 2026–27 to be moderate. Warmer spring weather could help dragon fruit and banana trees flower and produce fruit. It is unfavourable for flower-bud formation in lychee and longan trees.
The centre has also advised localities to fill reservoirs in advance, plan irrigation and prepare cloud seeding, to protect water for farms and households.
The outlook describes a trend, not a guarantee. Huang Qiuru, deputy director of the Hainan Provincial Meteorological Bureau, told the 13 October press conference that the super El Niño raises the odds of extreme weather. That does not mean extreme weather will strike anywhere at any time, he said, and he urged the public to rely on official forecasts and warnings.
The National Climate Center expects the Pacific warming to peak around November and December 2026. For Hainan, the test comes after that peak.
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