Typhoon Koinu, predicted impact assessment on Haikou

Hundreds of travellers were stuck at Hong Kong International Airport overnight, with long queues at taxi ranks stretching back into the arrival hall, after Koinu forced the suspension of most public transport.

The stronger-than-expected storm also left frustrated residents struggling to make their way home earlier in the evening, as open-air rail services ground to a halt when the Observatory raised the storm warning with only 15 minutes’ advance notice.

The maximum wind speed exceeded 132km/h (82mph), and at least 25 people had been injured as of 4am, including two people who were struck by falling tree branches at around 9.30am.

Currently, the typhoon is expected to move slowly in a west-southwest direction, gradually approaching the eastern part of Hainan Island and the western coastal areas of Guangdong. Its intensity is expected to gradually weaken.

Note: Because the high tide periods on the 10th and 11th coincide with peak traffic times, heavy rainfall during this period could lead to urban flooding and affect people’s travel.

Typhoon Koinu Impact Assessment:

Based on current forecasts, Typhoon Koinu is expected to approach close to the north-eastern part of Hainan Province, and it has not been ruled out that it may make landfall in Haikou City. During this period, the typhoon will bring strong winds and heavy rain primarily to the sea areas, posing significant risks to the Qiongzhou Strait and the safety of fishing boats.

Expected Response Level:

According to the current meteorological department’s forecast, when Typhoon Koinu approaches Haikou City, wind speeds are expected to reach level 10 (Strong Tropical Storm). This will be accompanied by heavy rainfall in some areas. According to the “Haikou City Flood and Typhoon Emergency Response Plan,” it is expected that a level III flood and typhoon emergency response will be initiated.

Expected Impact on Coastal Areas and Low-Lying Areas:

According to the current projected path of Typhoon Koinu, it is expected to bring significant impacts to Haikou City’s coastal and low-lying areas during the day on the 10th, particularly around noon. There is a possibility of exceeding the blue alert tidal level if the storm surge exceeds 40 centimetres. It will be necessary to monitor flood control measures in coastal facilities and low-lying areas and implement emergency measures in advance.

Expected Urban Flooding:

From the night of the 9th to the 11th, Haikou City can expect overcast skies with occasional rain and heavy rainfall in some areas, particularly concentrated from the night of the 9th to the daytime of the 10th, with accumulated rainfall of 50-150 millimetres, locally exceeding 200 millimetres. If this coincides with astronomical high tides and storm surges, it may lead to urban road flooding.

Expected Minimal Impact on Market Supply:

The suspension of the Qiongzhou Strait is expected to last around 48 hours. With the transportation of essential goods organised in advance, the supply of essential commodities during the typhoon period is expected to remain normal. Market price monitoring will also be strengthened to minimize any potential disruptions.

Expected Impact on Ongoing Construction Sites, Dilapidated Houses, and Trees in Parks:

Typhoon Koinu is expected to primarily affect the sea, but it will still bring some wind and rain to land areas. Construction sites, tower cranes, deep foundations, temporary sheds, and dilapidated houses are to be closely monitored, and preventive measures should be implemented in advance. In areas susceptible to seawater intrusion and low-lying areas, protective measures for underground spaces, vehicles, and power equipment should be implemented in advance.

Related article: Haikou Three Ports to Suspend Operations Starting October 9th due to Typhoon Impact

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