Since the autumn of 2021 a weak La Niña event which formed in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific has affected Hainan Province.
Affected by the weak La Niña event, Hainan Province was significantly colder in February 2022, with cold air activities still active through early and mid-April.
At present, the oceanic and atmospheric circulation systems which affect the climate of Hainan Province are undergoing changes and adjustments, and there are still uncertainties regarding their impact.
What’s expected for 2022?
Starting today (Thursday 21st), it is forecast that rainfall will ease up as temperatures across the island gradually rise.
In 2022, the wet season and the number of tropical cyclones affecting Hainan Province is expected to be close to average with the season starting later and finishing earlier than usual.
Temperatures in the rainy season are expected to be slightly higher while rainfall is expected to be slightly lower than usual.
Expectations for tropical cyclones, rainstorms, floods, high temperatures and meteorological drought are close to normal.
It is estimated that during the 2022 flood season (May to October), 6 to 8 tropical cyclones (including tropical depressions, tropical storms, severe tropical storms, typhoons, and tropical cyclones with intensity above typhoons) will affect Hainan Province (average of 7.2 per year).
Impact and landing intensity expectations are close to normal, however, some strong typhoons may occur during this period, (same as 2021).
2 are expected to land (average of 1.8 per year).
The first tropical cyclone to affect Hainan Province is expected to arrive in mid-May, 10 days later than normal (usually early May) with the last tropical cyclone arriving in mid-November, later than usual.
The rainy season for 2022 started on April 18th, 20 days earlier than normal and is expected to end in early October.
It is estimated that for the flood season of 2022, rainfall in all parts of Hainan Province will be 900-1800 mm.
The total rainfall for the flood season will be slightly less than normal, with rainstorm flood disasters and meteorological drought expectations close to average, however expect periodic severe rainstorms and flooding during this period.
It is estimated that the number of days with rainstorms (daily rainfall ≥50 mm) during the flood season will be close to average.
High temperature days.
It is expected that the number of high temperature (≥35°C) days during the flood season will be close to normal, and periodic high temperature and heat waves may occur in parts of the northwest and central parts of the country.
High temperature expectations are close to normal.
Related article: How does a typhoon form?
